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It has been predicted that the number of people in Britain may rise by more than a fifth according to a new official report.
The estimation stated that the number may reach close to 80 million by the year 2039 if the high levels of immigration continue as well as the pace of the increase in life expectancy and birth rates.
The report, which was conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), projects the peak level its experts believe the population could reach to. However, this prediction is based on immigration numbers from two years ago, which are in fact much lower than the rate of immigration recorded over the previous two years.
In light of this estimate, warnings were given that Britain faces mass strains on essential services and its resources as well as a deep public disaffection if the government cannot bring down the record rates.
The projections estimate that net migration – the number of people by which immigration increases the population each year – is expected to drop to 185,000 a year after 2020 and will remain at that level. At this rate as well as predicted birth and life expectancy rates, ONS suggest that the UK population will go up by nearly 10 million by 2039, from 64.6 million in 2014 to 74.3 million.
This being said, net migration figures passed the 300,000 a year mark in the final three months of 2014 and have continued above this level since. The most up to date net migration figure, for the last 12 months (ending last September), puts this migration figure at 323,000 for the year and that’s a number that isn’t experiencing a noticeable fall.
ONS’s estimations show the peak level for long-term net migration is at 265,000, nearly a visible 60,000 a year below the current level. At this rate as well as predicted birth and high levels of life expectancy rates, they say that by 2039 the country’s population will be at 79,090. This means a population rise of more than 22%. Broken down, it amounts to just under 14.5 million, which is close to 600,000 a year over the 25-year period between 2014 and 2039.
With these continued high immigration levels, it is likely to bring higher birth rates as immigrants are mainly young adults who are the most likely to have children. Life expectancy has gone up by a rate of 1.9% a year for men and 1.5% a year for women over the last 40 years. The top immigration expectations at the ONS are predicted on the possibility that this will rise to 2.4% yearly.
The ONS said that under its main future population estimate, putting 2039 numbers at 74.3 million, 68 per cent of the population increase will be a result of immigration. Over half of the extra of nearly 10 million envisaged under this projection will be immigrants, whilst 17% will be due to additional deaths and births because of immigration.
With David Cameron promising to bring net migration down to less than 100,000, this report has brought wise spread concern for his statement. The worry is that further stress will be put on the housing, transport, power, water, education and health services of the country, if migration continues at this rate and a plan isn’t in place.