Keir Starmer Resigns: Will UK Immigration Rules Change?

Keir Starmer Resigns: Will UK Immigration Rules Change?

As reported over the weekend, Keir Starmer was expected to announce his resignation come Monday morning. On Monday 22 June 2026, he duly resigned. Attention quickly turned to his successor as Prime Minister with ‘King of the North’, Andy Burnham immediately installed as the favourite. Wes Streeting has also been touted for the post. 

In this post we analyse the potential effects of a change of leadership on British immigration policy. We also look into Andy Burnham and what he has said about immigration; the state of immigration in the UK; and we answer the question will immigration policy change in a post-Starmer Labour government?

What Happens Next?

Starmer has confirmed that he will remain Prime Minister during a transition period while Labour selects a new leader. He confirmed the timeline for a new leader in his resignation speech at 10 Downing Street saying:

“I will ask the National Executive Committee of the Labour Party to set out a timetable with nominations opening on 9 July and completed by the summer recess.”

Because Labour still commands a substantial majority in the House of Commons, there is no automatic requirement for a General Election. The next scheduled General Election remains due by 2029. That means the next Prime Minister is likely to be chosen by Labour’s internal processes rather than by a national vote. And according to Keir Starmer the timeline of the leadership contest will ensure a new Prime Minister “is in place before Parliament returns in September.”

Who Could Replace Starmer?

At the time of writing, Andy Burnham is widely regarded as the frontrunner. Burnham recently returned to Parliament after winning the Makerfield by-election and has quickly emerged as the focus of Labour’s succession discussions. Reuters, the Associated Press and multiple UK media outlets all identify him as the leading contender. There is already speculation that Burnham could secure broad support across the parliamentary party, potentially avoiding a lengthy contest.

Other names being discussed include:

• Wes Streeting
• Al Carns

Will Immigration Policy Change in a Post-Starmer Labour Government?

In a word, no, not in any immediate or dramatic way. UK immigration law does not change because a Prime Minister resigns. Existing visas remain valid, applications continue to be processed, and sponsor licence obligations remain unchanged.

However, immigration has become one of the defining political issues of this Parliament. Whoever succeeds Starmer will inherit a system that has already undergone substantial reform and faces pressure from multiple directions: business groups seeking access to overseas talent, public concern over irregular migration, and growing electoral competition from Reform UK.

General Direction Unlikely to Change

The immigration rule book is unlikely to change. Labour have presided over a progressively changing system since the May 2025 white paper was published. It would be unexpected if they were to significantly change course. 

It is more likely that the government will change in tone than direction. The direction has firmly been set and the majority of planned changes are expected to be enforced in 2026 and 2027. Implementation of the planned policies will likely be the objective, at least initially, for a new Labour leader. A post-Starmer Labour government is unlikely to reverse the:

• end of overseas recruitment for care workers
• higher Skilled Worker skills threshold
• reduction of the Graduate visa to 18 months
• tougher English language direction
• move towards earned settlement
• increased focus on sponsor compliance
• aim of reducing net migration

Keir Starmer’s Resignation Speech

Part of Keir Starmer’s resignation speech:

“Thank you. Thank you. Walking up this street two years ago was the proudest moment of my life. A new Labour government. The first in 14 years. A page in our country’s history turned after years of disappointment and despair.

The chance to change the lives of millions of people for the better. That’s what I came into politics for. The journey to that point was not easy.

Six years ago, I inherited a Labour Party that was politically, financially and morally bankrupt. I was told, time and time again, that my party was finished.”

That we were consigned to history, that a majority at the general election, let alone a landslide majority, was impossible. But we proved those people wrong because we changed our party.”

What has Andy Burnham said about Immigration?

Andy Burnham – the favourite to take over as Prime Minister has a strong identity and support system in the North of England. His prior roles as Mayor of Greater Manchester and playing a small part in the Justice for Hillsborough Campaign in Liverpool, has led to considerable backing. He is a strong communicator; passionate and politically connected to the working class. 

What does that mean? 

Burnham understands the North of England, of Britain, and naturally understands and empathises with the concerns held in those constituencies. People are fearful of illegal immigration. He will know this better than many, and has commented on it recently. 

Andy Burnham on Immigration: Key Quotes and Positions

Illegal Migration and Border Control

8 June 2026 – BBC Radio Manchester

“We need to get a grip on illegal migration.”

“We need to make greater use of detention.”

“We need to get back to a sense of order.”

4 June 2026 – The Guardian

Burnham said Labour should not:

“shy away” from concerns about small boat crossings and irregular migration.

Net Migration

22 May 2026 – BBC Interview

“UK net migration needs to fall further.”

Burnham added that voters had:

“raised their concerns about immigration” during the Makerfield campaign.

Border Control

20 May 2026 – The Independent

Burnham’s allies said he believes:

“People need to trust that the people they vote for have control over our borders.”

Legal Migration and Asylum

20 May 2026 – The Guardian

Burnham’s allies said he supports efforts to:

“limit legal and illegal migration”.

June 2026 – Reuters

Reuters reported that Burnham supports legal routes for refugees and asylum seekers, and allowing more asylum seekers already in the UK to work.

Earlier Comments

20 June 2016 – EU Referendum Campaign

Burnham defended:

“the role of immigrants in the NHS”.

He also argued against arbitrary migration caps and criticised politicians who reduced immigration debates to headline numbers.

What Could Change Under Burnham?

Any prediction should be treated cautiously. A leadership contest is not a government programme and Burnham has not yet published a detailed immigration blueprint. Nevertheless, based on his recent statements, several possibilities emerge.

There is currently no evidence that Burnham intends to dismantle the UK’s economic migration system or radically rewrite the Immigration Rules. The more likely scenario is incremental tightening rather than wholesale reform.

Areas Where Change Could Occur

• Greater emphasis on enforcement against illegal migration.
• Additional measures targeting Channel crossings.
• Expanded use of immigration detention.
• A stronger political focus on restoring confidence in border controls.

Areas Where Continuity Is More Likely

• Skilled Worker routes.
• Sponsor licence systems.
• International student migration.
• Employer sponsorship frameworks.
• Existing settlement and citizenship pathways.

How Will Other Parties Respond?

• The Conservatives are likely to argue that Labour’s leadership turmoil demonstrates failure on immigration and border control.
• Reform UK will almost certainly seek to increase pressure on Labour by arguing that neither Starmer nor Burnham has gone far enough.
• Liberal Democrats, Greens and migrant rights organisations are likely to oppose any further tightening of asylum and immigration policy.

This means that whichever leader emerges will face pressure from both directions: demands for tougher controls on one side and demands for greater humanitarian protections on the other.

Why Immigration Will Be Central To The Contest

One of the most striking political developments of the last two years has been the rise of Reform UK and the growing intensity of immigration as a voter concern.

Several analyses of Starmer’s resignation point to Labour’s difficulties on immigration and border control as part of the broader dissatisfaction that weakened his position. Political pressure has come not only from the Conservatives but also from Reform UK, which has sought to make immigration one of the defining issues in British politics.

Any new Labour leader will therefore face a difficult balancing act:

• maintaining economic migration routes that employers rely upon
• reducing net migration levels
• addressing Channel crossings and asylum backlogs
• avoiding accusations of returning to the more liberal immigration approach associated with earlier Labour governments

Does the Labour Leadership Race Affect Existing Visa Holders?

For most migrants, students, employers and sponsors, the answer is straightforward. No. A change of Prime Minister does not invalidate visas, pause applications or alter sponsor licence duties.

However, visa holders should also prepare for incoming policies as already covered, like the Earned Settlement reform. The key policy direction will most likely remain unchanged. .

If Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister, the strongest evidence suggests continuity rather than revolution. His recent comments indicate support for stronger action against illegal migration, but there is little indication that he intends to dismantle the core architecture of the current immigration system.

New Immigration and Asylum Policies Introduced by Labour

To understand what might happen next, it is important to understand what has already happened. One common misconception is that Labour simply reversed Conservative immigration policy after winning power in 2024. The reality is, it was tightened. Whether it was tightened enough, or quickly enough is up for debate.

The Rwanda Scheme Was Scrapped

The most visible change was Labour’s decision to abandon the Rwanda policy almost immediately after taking office. Starmer described the scheme as “dead and buried” and subsequently moved to repeal the legislation underpinning it.

But Labour Also Tightened Immigration Rules

Legal Migration

Labour has already introduced or announced a number of significant restrictions to work and study routes, including:

• Raising the general Skilled Worker skills threshold back towards graduate-level occupations.
• Increasing the Skilled Worker salary threshold to £41,700.
• Ending overseas recruitment for social care workers.
• Replacing the Immigration Salary List with a narrower Temporary Shortage List.
• Reducing the number of medium-skilled occupations eligible for sponsorship.
• Increasing English language requirements on several routes.
• Introducing greater scrutiny of employers seeking to recruit from overseas.
• Tightening compliance expectations for universities and student sponsors.

Asylum and Enforcement

While Labour scrapped the Rwanda scheme shortly after entering government, it has also introduced a series of tougher asylum and enforcement measures. These include:

• A new “dangerous journey” rule, making it harder for some individuals who entered the UK irregularly to obtain refugee status.
• Measures designed to speed up asylum decision-making and removals. One particularly significant policy is the introduction of a new 28-week deadline for asylum appeals and related proceedings, aimed at reducing delays in the system and accelerating final decisions.
• Expanded powers to detain and remove individuals with no right to remain.
• Greater enforcement activity against illegal working and non-compliant employers.

Effects of Current Measures

It is likely to be concluded within any incumbent UK Prime Minister that some of the systems that have come into force, have been impactful. The government has quite significantly reduced routes that have either been prone to abuse, or have been used to bring family members to the UK. New rules around Student visas and Dependent visas have evidently reduced net migration numbers in those categories. 

The latest net migration statistics may present proof for some that deterrence is working. A net migration balance of 171,000 recorded for the year ending December 2025 is a sharp drop from the 944,000 peak in for the year ending March 2023. 

Burnham’s comments about reducing migration further, as well as those of other potential Labour leadership candidates are possibly more to reflect current immigration sentiment, rather than an admission that the current system is not working. One likelihood might be that the incoming leader will go further, particularly in light of the fraught tensions and news cycles surrounding asylum and illegal immigration.

But, within that same thought. We know already, there is more to come from the government’s published immigration white paper.

Immigration & Asylum Changes Proposed

Arguably the most significant of Labour immigration policies, as published in the white paper and since consulted on, are yet to become law. These are expected to completely change the framework of immigration in the UK.

• Graduate visa to be reduced to 18 months from January 2027 making the opportunity to progress to a paid work route tougher. PhD and doctoral graduates will retain the right to stay for three years. 
• English language requirements for UK settlement or Indefinite Leave to Remain will increase. 
• Employers should also expect continued pressure. The government’s position is that immigration should not be used as a long-term alternative to training, workforce planning and better domestic recruitment. Employers can expect tougher scrutiny, compliance and domestic workforce responsibilities. 
• Universities will face stronger compliance duties when it comes to sponsoring students, particularly around course completion, student outcomes and the transition from study to work.
• Earned Settlement Reform – See below

Earned Settlement Reform

One of the biggest unresolved issues is settlement. The White Paper proposed moving away from the standard five-year route to settlement for many migrants and towards an “earned settlement” model. This could mean a longer qualifying period, potentially up to 10 years for skilled workers, up to 15 years for lower-skilled workers, and potentially even longer for some individuals on protection-based routes.

The policy is intended to focus on the ability to “earn” settlement earlier through positive contributions to the UK. The Government has suggested that factors such as higher earnings, skills, qualifications, public service, community contribution and tax contributions could reduce the time required to qualify for settlement, while periods of economic inactivity, lower earnings or reliance on public funds could potentially extend it.

The precise criteria have not yet been published, and the reforms have not been fully implemented across the immigration system. However, earned settlement remains one of the central pillars of Labour’s immigration agenda. Any post-Starmer Labour leader is arguably more likely to refine the policy than abandon it altogether.